Conflict Watchlist 2023
Report
Conflict Watchlist 2023: Democratic Republic of Congo
Rising tensions in the Congo due to conflicts, involving M23, ADF, and CODECO.
The presence of over a hundred armed groups engaging in multiple conflicts over territorial and resource control continued to create instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2022. While many of these conflicts have been active for years, the sudden onset of inter-communal clashes in Mai-Ndombe province and surrounding areas over land taxation was a potent reminder of the volatility of conflict dynamics in the DRC. Amidst the growth of activity by the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group and the outbreak of new conflicts in 2022, the coming year offers minimal hope for wide-scale conflict resolution. Indeed, escalating tensions between the DRC and Rwanda, and potential voting disruptions to national elections in December 2023 could lead to worsening violence, especially in the eastern provinces.
Political violence events remained concentrated in the eastern region in 2022, driven by political rivalries, land disputes, mineral interests, and foreign intervention. Specifically, Nord-Kivu province accounted for the highest number of political violence events and grew by 7% from last year. Of the groups operating in eastern DRC, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo (CODECO) remained two of the most active. The ADF has early roots as an opposition group to the Ugandan government but later positioned itself as an Islamist militia with pledges to the Islamic State and merger with other militias operating in Nord-Kivu and Ituri provinces.1
CODECO began as an agricultural cooperative in Ituri province, later becoming an armed coalition primarily composed from the ethnic Lendu community before fracturing into smaller armed groups in 2020 following the death of former leader Justin Ngudjolo.2 CODECO activity remained at similar levels to 2021 after nearly doubling the year prior. Following participation in peace talks and mediation last year,3
The M23 – an armed group formed in 2012 and primarily made up of ‘Rwandaphone’ Tutsi rebels – re-emerged as a prominent conflict actor in 2022, with a nearly thirty-fold increase in activity compared to the year prior.4 An increasing number of investigations have linked the recent growth of the M23 to backing from Rwanda, intensifying tensions in the Great Lakes region.5 To combat the M23 insurgency, the DRC turned to the East African Community (EAC) to form a Joint Regional Force.6
The outbreak of violence between Yaka and Teke communal groups in the western province of Mai-Ndombe over a land dispute further highlighted the volatility of conflict dynamics in the DRC. In 2021, Mai-Ndombe was one of the least violent provinces in the DRC. Following the outbreak of fighting in the second half of 2022, however, Mai-Ndombe rose to become the fifth most violent of 26 provinces.
Despite some clashes late into 2022, the inter-communal conflict over land disputes between members of Yaka and Teke communities will likely subside in 2023.
Further, the outbreak of violence in this region showed the possibility of conflicts spiking in provinces with a recent history of limited violence.
The Congolese general elections on 20 December 2023 may also stoke existing tensions between party supporters and political candidates.
