Europe and Central Asia Overview: August 2024

Armenia-Azerbaijan: Two sides inch closer to a peace deal despite persisting tensions along the border

Azerbaijan issued six allegations of Armenian forces targeting its positions along the Armenian-Azerbaijani borders, of which five concerned the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. In addition, Azerbaijani forces intercepted an Armenian reconnaissance drone flying over Azerbaijani positions set up following Azerbaijan’s incursion into Armenia’s Syunik region in September 2022. In the meantime, Azerbaijani press spun allegations of shipments of weapons and troops to Armenia, prompting a rebuttal from the United States ambassador in Baku.¹

Increased tensions along the borders contrasted with fitful progress on a peace treaty and border delimitation. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan confirmed that the issue of the land link to Nakhchivan via Armenia (also known as the Zangezur corridor) had been scrapped from the draft peace agreement,² though Russia claims that the re-opening of transport communications is still a prerequisite for normalization of relations.³Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, continues to insist that Armenia amend its constitution, which cites the country’s independence declaration, which, in turn, mentions the former Artsakh.¹.

Russia: Ukraine takes war back to Russia

On 6 August, Ukrainian armed forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, meeting little resistance from border guards and conscripts. Unlike previous raids into Russia manned by Russian volunteer units, regular Ukrainian troops were deployed. By 20 August, Ukraine claimed control of over 1,263 square kilometers of territory and over 90 settlements, including the town of Sudzha, near the border with Ukraine, and the nearby metering station on the last operational Russian gas pipeline running through Ukraine.⁶

Serbia: Government takes on protests against a lithium mining project

Serbia’s government responded to escalating environmental protests in August with a mix of repression and conspiracy theories. The number of demonstrations against a lithium mining project more than doubled in August after resuming in July in response to the government’s reinstatement of operator Rio Tinto’s license and the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the European Union on exploring sustainable raw materials to power electric vehicles.¹³

Ukraine: Russia advances toward Pokrovsk and resumes attacks on the Ukrainian power grid

Despite Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the Russian assault on the Donetsk region accelerated, primarily focusing on the Ukrainian forces’ key logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Russia captured 25 closely-knit villages in the town’s environs — the quickest pace of occupation since May, which was marked by Russia’s rapid gains during its re-invasion of the northern Kharkiv region. In the northern Donetsk region, Russian forces closed in on Toretsk but appeared to be stalling in Chasiv Yar. Fighting intensified in the area of Lyman in the Donetsk region and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region.¹⁸

United Kingdom: Anti-racist pushback on anti-migrant riots

Far-right anti-immigration riots continued across the United Kingdom in early August, marking the largest wave of social unrest in the country since riots triggered by the police shooting of a Black man in London in 2011.²¹