Report
Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2020
Mid-year update on significant global conflicts to watch in 2020.
In our special report on 10 conflicts to worry about at the start of 2020, ACLED identified a range of flashpoints and emerging crises where violent political disorder was likely to evolve and worsen over the course of the year: the Sahel, Mexico, Yemen, India, Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Lebanon, and the United States. Our mid-year update revisits these 10 cases more than six months on — in a world disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic — and tracks key political violence and protest trends to watch in the second half of 2020.
Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2020
Please click through the drop-down menu below to jump to specific cases.
The Sahel
The Sahel
In the Sahel, persistent conflicts have raged on for more than eight years and show no signs of abating...
At the beginning of 2020, ACLED assessed a high risk of conflicts in the Sahel diffusing and spilling over into neighboring countries amid a continuous southward encroachment...
The rising tensions escalated into open warfare in Mali and Burkina Faso in early 2020...
Mexico
Mexico
Last year ended with a record number of homicides in Mexico, and ACLED records comparable levels of violence through the first half of 2020. Despite the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, violence has not decreased...
Yemen
Yemen
Yemen’s civil war continues unabated. Backchannel negotiations between the Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia...
Houthi forces managed to capture Al Hazm on 1 March, the provincial capital of Al Jawf governorate...
India
India
Discontent surrounding the passage of the controversial 2019 Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) intensified across India in 2020...
Despite the onset of the pandemic, religious violence has continued due to the weaponization of the coronavirus against India’s Muslims...
Somalia
Somalia
2020 was set to be the year in which universal suffrage was realized in Somalia for the first time since the outbreak of civil war in 1992...
In July, the Dhuusamarreeb forum engaged the federal government and the federal member states in direct discussions...
Iran
Iran
Tensions between Iran and the United States (US) have remained high since an American drone strike killed Qasem Soleimani...
In the absence of open conflict, both Iran and the US have escalated regional tensions through more oblique actions...
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
In February 2020, the US and the Taliban finally signed a long-awaited peace deal in Afghanistan amid a decline in violence...
Meanwhile, the Taliban ceased operations against US and NATO forces, yet continues to target Afghan forces...
Ethiopia
Ethiopia
In January, ACLED warned that Ethiopia was at risk of increased fragmentation despite a recent change in government applauded by the international community...
Throughout 2020, Ethiopian federal troops and police forces have struggled to adequately tackle complex security challenges...
Lebanon
Lebanon
While the coronavirus pandemic significantly impacted Lebanon’s existing political and economic crisis, the massive explosion which ripped through Beirut’s Port area on 4 August...
While demonstrations had remained largely peaceful, over the last six months, violent demonstrations and mob violence, especially following the explosion, have increased...
United States
United States
At the start of the year, a range of indicators warned that America faced increasing risks of political violence and instability: mass shootings had hit record highs...
Within a matter of months, these existing risks were compounded by the social and economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic...
