Monthly regional updates
Update
Regional Overview: Africa | May 2023
Overview of political violence and protests in Cameroon, Guinea, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Sudan.
Cameroon: Political violence increases in both the Anglophone regions and the Extreme-Nord region
In Cameroon, levels of political violence rose in May by 50% after two consecutive months of declining violence. This rise was primarily driven by increasing battles in the Extreme-Nord region between Islamist insurgents and state forces. Political violence tends to be lower in April and resume in the month of May each year in the Extreme-Nord region after the end of Ramadan. Violence also increased in the Anglophone Sud-Ouest and Nord-Ouest regions, driven by a rise in Ambazonian separatist activity. Concerningly, explosions and remote violence events have increased to the highest level since November 2021, taking place in the Extreme-Nord and Anglophone regions. Ambazonian separatists targeted military forces with explosives in the Sud-Ouest region around National Day celebrations on 20 May,1 reportedly leaving three Rapid Intervention soldiers dead. In Nord-Ouest, separatists also abducted and reportedly tortured scores of women demonstrating against imposed compulsory taxes in Babankim town, near the border with Nigeria. The outbreak of renewed clashes between Ambazonian separatists and security forces comes despite recent high-profile defections among Ambazonaian separatists, including David Dibo and Ekpe Jerome.2
Guinea: State forces engage in deadly repression of anti-junta demonstrations in Conakry
Reported fatalities reached the highest level in Guinea since the outbreak of post-election violence in October 2020 amid ongoing repression of anti-government demonstrations. On 10 May, the opposition Forces Vives coalition launched a new series of demonstrations, calling for a return to constitutional order and a civilian government amidst increasing discontent with the ruling military junta. Demonstrations primarily took place on the “axe,” a freeway that crosses key opposition districts in Conakry.3 While an increasing proportion of demonstrations were peaceful compared to previous months – comprising half of the total number of demonstration events – the response by state forces was far more lethal. On 10 May, state forces responded to demonstrators blocking the Route Le Prince axis and throwing stones with tear gas and by shooting live bullets, reportedly killing seven demonstrators and injuring 32 others. The state also suppressed further demonstration action by sending the army into opposition districts using heavily armed vehicles.
Mozambique: Resurgence of Islamist Violence in Cabo Delgado
Political violence in Mozambique rose fourfold in May compared to the previous month, with a sharp increase in operations by Islamist militias in Cabo Delgado province. Following the conclusion of the rainy season and Ramadan festivities, violence was concentrated in Macomia and Muidumbe districts, where security forces clashed with insurgents. While violence in Muidumbe district continued at a rate similar to the previous months, the escalation in Macomia district led to the highest number of events recorded in this district since December 2022. The fall in activity after December 2022 may have been the insurgent’s response to the military launching the Vulcan IV Operations in January 2023,4 when insurgents redirected their focus away from direct violence and toward building relationships with locals and enforcing Sharia regulations.5 However, these tactics changed in the past month. In May, Islamist militants clashed with military forces at administrative posts and the military base of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique in Macomia town (for more on the Cabo Delgado insurgency in Mozambique, see ACLED`s Cabo Ligado project).
Sierra Leone: Election-related violence rises ahead of voting on 24 June
In Sierra Leone, election-related violence rose as the official campaign period for presidential, legislative, and local elections began on 23 May, ahead of voting on 24 June.6 The majority of election-related violence was carried out by suspected supporters of the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) against opposition All People’s Congress (APC) members, including an attack on the APC district chairman in Bendugu town. Election-related violence took place in three of the country’s four provinces amidst concerns over partisanship by security forces and suspected arbitrary arrests of opposition supporters by the police.7 In the presidential election, current President Julius Maada Bio of the SLPP party will face the leading APC opposition candidate, Samura Kamara.8 The 2023 campaign cycle follows highly debated electoral reforms in 2022, which created a district-level proportional representation system. APC opposes the change, claiming it will favor the ruling party.9
Sudan: Increasing concentration of violent events in Khartoum
The concentration of fighting in Khartoum continued to grow in May amid ongoing fighting between military forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Nearly 75% of political violence events took place in Khartoum in May, compared to 39% in April. In contrast to increasing activity in Khartoum, the number of violent incidents decreased in all other states – with the exception of North Kordofan and White Nile states. In North Kordofan, battles between the SAF and RSF rose over the control of El Obeid and the Jebel Kordofan military base. In White Nile state, in addition to fighting between the SAF and RSF, multiple clashes broke out between Hausa and Nuba armed groups over ongoing land disputes in Kosti. Despite the concentration of events in Khartoum, the number of reported fatalities was highest in the Darfur region. In May, clashes and related political violence involving the SAF and RAF, backed by local militias, reportedly killed hundreds in the region.10 The violence led to over 90,000 refugees crossing the border into Chad since the SAF and RSF conflict started in April,11 fuelling increased concerns over border insecurity (for more, see ACLED’s Sudan Fact Sheet).
Footnotes
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Deutsche Welle, ‘Moçambique: Operação Vulcão IV no combate ao terrorismo,’ 5 January 2023
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Cocorioko, SLPP unleashes thuggery on APC at Mile 91, 24 May 2023
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All Africa, ‘Sierra Leone MPs scuffle over electoral reform,’ 24 November 2022
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CNN, Hundreds killed as fighting worsens in Sudanese region of West Darfur, 17 May 2023
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