Regional Overview: Middle East | October 2023 - The Regional Implications of the Israel-Gaza Conflict

Turmoil and violence rocked the Middle East throughout October. Following the 7 October Hamas attack on southern Israel, Israeli forces launched an unprecedented air campaign against the Gaza Strip, leading to a ground offensive by the end of the month. Meanwhile, members of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’ engaged in a number of attacks against both Israel and the United States. The Lebanese Hezbollah exchanged tit-for-tat fire with Israeli forces on a daily basis, while cross-border shelling was also reported along Israel’s northern border with Syria. Yemen’s Houthis fired cruise missiles and drones towards Israel on multiple occasions, though none landed inside Israeli territory. Elsewhere, with the United States sending additional warships, aircraft, and troops closer to Israel as a message of deterrence, Iraqi Shiite militias targeted a number of American interests in Iraq and Syria. Though regional conflict has largely been contained thus far, and all parties – including Iran – have expressed that they are not seeking to broaden the war, concerns remain that the violence could spill over into the rest of the region as Israel’s operation inside Gaza intensifies.

This special Regional Overview explores the implications of the Israel-Gaza conflict across the Middle East. For more ACLED data and analysis on the conflict, visit our dedicated Israel and Palestine hub.

Israel and Palestine: The most serious outbreak of violence in decades

In a surprise attack on 7 October, Hamas militants broke through the security barrier separating the Gaza Strip from Israel, attacking border communities and Israeli military positions. Hamas militants killed at least 1,400 Israelis¹ – mostly civilians – in the assault, and abducted over 200 to the Gaza Strip in the most serious security challenge Israel has encountered in decades. Within a few days, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took back control of Israeli towns that had been captured by Hamas and sealed the border. The Israeli government declared war on Hamas, with the stated aim of eradicating the group², and imposed a total siege on Gaza.

During the first three weeks of the conflict, the IDF unrelentingly bombed the coastal enclave. ACLED records nearly 700 airstrike events in 56 locations across all five governorates, killing over 8,500 Palestinians according to the Gaza Health Ministry.³ Gaza City saw the highest number of airstrikes,⁴ but Israeli forces also heavily targeted southern areas, despite the order for northern Gazans to evacuate southward. Nearly one-third of airstrikes recorded between 7 and 31 October targeted Khan Yunis and Rafah governorates. IDF strikes have continuously targeted residential buildings, schools, United Nations shelters, refugee centers, and medical facilities, leaving no safe area for civilians. On 31 October, the IDF targeted the Jabaliya refugee camp in North Gaza governorate, reportedly killing at least 50 Palestinians and a Hamas commander.⁵ Israeli officials maintain that the target of their intense airstrikes is Hamas, blaming the high civilian fatality toll on Hamas for hiding in densely populated areas.⁶

Amid a night of heavy bombardment and internet outage, on 27 October, Israel started the second stage of the war, expanding ground operation into the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces have since gradually moved in to encircle Gaza City. ACLED records nearly two dozen armed clashes in North Gaza, Deyr al-Balah, and Khan Yunis governorates. Taking advantage of a network of underground tunnels, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants reportedly launched multiple ambushes of IDF forces.⁷ Israel confirmed that the fighting inside Gaza killed 15 of its soldiers in October.⁸ IDF forces are expected to be engaged in complicated and protracted urban warfare once they move into Hamas stronghold positions in Gaza City.

Meanwhile, Hamas fired over 8,500 rockets into Israel since 7 October, according to Israeli authorities⁹ – more than in any of the four preceding conflicts waged between Israel and Hamas since 2007.¹⁰ While Israel’s sophisticated air defense system, called the Iron Dome, intercepted most of these rockets, ACLED records over 250 events where rockets landed in empty fields or populated localities inside Israel. In the initial week of the conflict, approximately a dozen Israelis were reportedly killed by Hamas rockets,¹¹ but no further fatalities have been reported since 13 October. Barrages of rockets reached deep inside Israel, with several direct hits reported in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area, resulting in several civilian injuries.

Tensions also escalated significantly in the West Bank last month, with nearly 200 clashes reported between Palestinian armed groups and Israeli military forces since 7 October – more than double the number of events recorded in September. Armed groups confronted IDF forces during arrest raids – which Israel has stepped up since the Hamas assault, arresting over 1,700 Palestinians¹² – while also attacking army checkpoints and positions. Furthermore, the IDF has taken a heavy-handed response to an uptick in unarmed riots and violent demonstrations by Palestinians, firing live rounds and killing at least 80 people. Meanwhile, a wave of intensified settler violence targeting Palestinian civilians and their properties has further inflamed tensions, resulting in at least six fatalities.

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Lebanon: Flare-up of violence along the border with Israel

Deadly skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah – one of the most heavily armed non-state actors in the world and a formidable member of the Iran-backed ‘axis of resistance’ – have fueled fears over a second front in the conflict. Since 8 October, Hezbollah has fired anti-tank missiles and rockets towards Israeli army positions in northern Israel on a daily basis, killing six soldiers. Israel has retaliated with artillery fire and air attacks, striking more than 50 locations in southern Lebanon and killing at least 50 Hezbollah fighters, almost a fifth of the total number of fatalities Hezbollah suffered during the 2006 Lebanon War.¹³ Though the fighting largely has remained limited to the border area and mainly struck military installments on both sides, hostilities have been gradually escalating. During the last week of October, the IDF carried out airstrikes some 20 kilometers deep into Lebanon,¹⁴ while Hezbollah used surface-to-air missiles to down an Israeli drone.¹⁵ The current outbreak marks the most intense episode of cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah since 2006.

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Iraq and Syria: Iran-backed Shiite militias attack American forces

On 17 October, the day of the deadly strike at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, a new umbrella group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq began conducting suicide drone and rocket attacks targeting American and Global Coalition bases. Over a dozen attacks in Iraq have since been attributed to the group, including attacks on Ain al-Asad Airbase in Anbar, Camp Victory in Baghdad, and the Harir Air Base in Erbil. Experts contend that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is likely not a unified entity, but an umbrella term used by Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq to signal unity amid the Israel-Gaza conflict, while at the same time hiding their individual culpability by claiming attacks jointly.¹⁶ Though prominent groups, including Kataib Hizbullah (KH), have threatened Israel with a protracted war of attrition,¹⁷ they have not claimed any of the recent attacks, with experts suggesting they are likely part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq umbrella.¹⁸ The recent attacks mark a significant shift in Iranian-backed militia activity against American interests in Iraq, which had been declining since mid-2021, and are likely intended to communicate the capability and willingness of these groups to escalate against the United States if it were to directly intervene in Gaza.¹⁹

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also carried out at least seven drone and rocket attacks against American and Global Coalition bases in Syria in recent weeks. The United States responded by launching airstrikes against pro-Iran militias and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps weapon and ammunition depots in al-Bukamal and al-Mayadin deserts in the Dayr al-Zawr countryside. Although the attacks in Iraq and Syria have so far been small-scale without inflicting fatalities, the situation could significantly escalate if attacks on American forces were to turn fatal.

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Syria: Cross-border shelling and intensified Israeli airstrikes

Palestinian factions and Lebanese Hezbollah affiliates in Syria have fired rockets into Israel on multiple occasions since 7 October.²⁰ In response, the IDF has significantly increased its operations directed at targets in Syria, launching a dozen airstrikes and a ground incursion. This included four strikes on Aleppo and Damascus airports, which put them out of service for several days.²¹ On 14 October, Israeli tanks and vehicles entered Syrian territory and struck regime and Hezbollah positions in the Tassil area in Dara province with missiles. Furthermore, on 25 October, at least eight Syrian regime soldiers were killed in an Israeli airstrike near the southwestern city of Dara. A close political ally of Iran, the regime of Bashar al-Assad has been part of the ‘axis of resistance’ for decades. While Syria and Israel have been in an official state of war since 1948, it is unlikely that the regime would enter an active conflict against Israel in support of Hamas. But with Syria having long served as a route for Iran to transfer military material to Hezbollah, increased Israeli airstrikes to disrupt supplies will likely continue.

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Yemen: Houthi forces launch drones and missiles at Israel

Houthi forces launched drone and missile attacks toward Israel on three different days during the month of October. The attacks came after the leader of the Houthi movement, Abdulmalik al-Houthi, issued a warning on 10 October threatening attacks if the United States were to intervene in support of Israel.²² On 19 October, a drone and missile attack was at least partially intercepted by an American warship in the north Red Sea, and on 27 October an attack in the Egyptian Red Sea town of Taba, located just opposite Eilat, injured six people. Furthermore, Israeli forces claimed to have intercepted ‘projectiles’ coming from Yemen and targeting Eilat on 31 October.²³ Although the Houthis did not individually claim each operation, the military spokesman, Yahya Sarii, claimed three operations targeting Israel throughout the month.²⁴ In his statement, Sarii vowed to continue attacks against Israel until it ceased its operations in the Gaza Strip. The continuation of attacks was confirmed hours later when Israeli forces claimed an interception near Eilat for the second time on 31 October.²⁵

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