Ukraine war situation update: 16 – 22 August 2025

Spotlight: Ukraine strikes Russian oil facilities amid stalled negotiations

On 18 and 21 August, Ukrainian drones and missiles struck an oil refinery and another facility belonging to the Druzhba international oil pipeline in the Tambov and Bryansk regions of Russia, suspending the flow of Russian oil to Europe.¹ Slovakia and Hungary, the two countries resisting the phase-out of Russian energy imports, criticized Kyiv for the strikes and threatened electricity and diesel supply cuts to Ukraine.² Ukraine also struck two oil refineries in the Volgograd and Rostov regions. Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities have already amounted to nearly 90 incidents in 2025, as many as in the entire 2024. Following a relative lull between April and June this year during the energy strikes moratorium and renewed Istanbul talks, Ukraine’s strikes resumed in July in retaliation for Russia’s targeting of energy facilities in Ukraine and have increased in August, reaching the levels recorded in January and March.

By targeting Russia’s oil and gas facilities, Ukraine seeks to impact Russia’s war economy by impeding energy exports and pressuring Russia into good-faith peace talks. Russia’s energy exports continue to bring in high revenue and fund the war in Ukraine, partially due to loopholes in the sanction regime and Russia’s deliberate evasion.³ As the United States’ efforts to negotiate peace in Ukraine have resulted in little progress, President Donald Trump renewed threats to impose further sanctions on Russia,⁴ following his previous decision to increase tariffs for Indian buyers of Russian oil.⁵ Despite having formally committed to peace talks, Russia has largely maintained its maximalist demands.⁶ It has also stalled the idea of a direct meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia,⁷ which was floated following the summits in Alaska and at the White House, including by questioning the legitimacy of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.⁸

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