Conflict in the Great Lakes

Recurrent, interconnected conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes region, spanning Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has been driven by a number of factors, including competition over power, land, and natural resources. While violence is concentrated in the eastern provinces of the DRC, neighboring conflicts have impacted regional peace and security. The joint Congolese and Ugandan military force under Operation Shujaa in Ituri and North Kivu provinces has yet to bring an end to violence carried out by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), especially against civilians. Meanwhile, Burundian forces are fighting against the March 23 Movement (M23) and Rwandan military forces (RDF) in the DRC and further operations against Burundian rebel groups that operate from South Kivu province.

The DRC tends to rank high on ACLED’s Conflict Index over both local and regional tensions, with more turbulent and localized political violence driving the conflict in Burundi and Uganda. While Rwanda has been long considered stable, the offensive into the DRC led Congolese forces to launch retaliatory artillery strikes into Rwanda and may destabilize western areas of the country.

Armed groups in the Great Lakes region

The persistent conflict in the Great Lakes region has been driven by military forces, foreign-backed armed groups, rebel movements, and local militias. Since the re-emergence of the M23 in 2021, it has become the most violent group in the Great Lakes region. The M23 receives support from the RDF, or Rwanda Defence Force, whose soldiers often fight alongside the M23 and provide the rebels with advanced weapons. The ADF, an armed group operating in the eastern DRC and Uganda with reported ties to the Islamic State, has consistently carried out the most violence toward civilians in the Great Lakes. The ADF also remains a threat to Uganda, with a long history of cross-border violence. When confronting various threats, Congolese military forces (FARDC) have received support from numerous armed groups, bilateral military forces, and multilateral troops. Notably, the FARDC has drawn upon the Wazalendo coalition, a loose association of militias aligned with the Congolese military that initially emerged as localized youth self-defense groups.